Maize is the preferred staple of most of southern Africa. In Malawi it supplies two-thirds of national calorie intake. Nine out of 10 farming households produce maize and devote over 70% of their land to growing it. Most farming households are vulnerable to the rainfall patterns. Over 90% of farming households in the country rely solely on rain to irrigate their maize plants. We looked at possible weather pattern changes driven by El Niño – an unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – and their impact on maize production in Malawi. We did this by developing a model from historical district crop data and El Niño events since the 1980s. Econometric modelling, which uses statistics and mathematics, is useful in studying the cause and effect of relationships, in the case of weather patterns. Historically, two out of every three El Niño events have coincided with reduced maize harvests of, on average, 22.5%. A fall of this magnitude would result in millions of people relying on food aid. The shortage would also affect both formal and informal maize markets while rural food producers would have much less maize to sell. Though higher prices would provide some support to rural households that successfully grow maize, urban households would have to cope with depressed economic conditions and higher prices.

Based on our findings, we recommend social protection programmes for impoverished people in both rural and urban areas. These can include cash transfers or government food aid. In addition, policy makers need to monitor the impact of El Niño shocks so they can respond quickly by importing more maize, with international assistance.And a set of policies needs to be developed, including investments in helping farmers install irrigation for their crops, and diversifying income-generating opportunities beyond traditional farming.