该研究利用新型卫星遥感数据，在全国流域尺度首次建立了耕地面积与有害蓝藻暴发之间的因果关系：在现有的集约化耕种模式下，耕地面积每增加1%，流域蓝藻暴发面积平均增长0.5%，同时会显著延长蓝藻的存续时间。研究进一步证实了耕地氮磷流失具有累积和遗留效应，历史污染物会持续释放并对水环境施加长期压力。

实证结果表明，2015年实施的全国化肥减量行动在短期内有效抑制了我国大湖中的有害蓝藻暴发，但其长期效果尚待评估。该研究不仅为农业面源污染治理提供了政策依据，也展示了卫星遥感水质监测数据在农业资源与环境经济学研究中的应用价值。

该论文由华中农业大学经济管理学院唐川副教授（唯一通讯作者）、中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生郭艺锋、南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院冯炼教授共同完成。研究获得国家重点研发计划、广东省基础与应用研究基金、华中农业大学自主科技创新基金的资助。

英文摘要

We compile a unique satellite-derived panel dataset to investigate the impacts of cropland coverage on the outbreak of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in China between 2003 and 2019. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in cropland leads to a 0.5% increase in the size of HABs in lakes larger than 20 km2. The increase in cropland not only affects the size of HABs but also significantly prolongs their duration on average. Furthermore, we provide evidence of a diminishing legacy effect of cropland on HAB area over time and a nonlinear relationship between cropland area and HABs. Fertilizer leakage from cropland shapes the entire pollution mechanism, with farming practices that require elevated fertilizer posing significantly greater impacts on water quality. While the nationwide fertilizer reduction policy implemented in 2015 successfully dampens HABs in nonreservoir lakes during the initial three years, its long-term effects remain uncertain. This study highlights the potential of satellite imagery data for economic analyses of nutrient pollution in China.

论文链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12510

撰稿：唐   川

审核：李谷成

编辑：杨雯萱

编审：杨志海